Thursday, July 25, 2013

PRIVATE EQUITY IN AFRICA AND LEADING SUSTAINABILITY FROM CAPE TOWN

Weekly Viewpoints on Sustainable Investment 

In this week's note a view on private equity in Africa and academic research on sustainability in Cape Town. 


John Oliphant, Head of Investments and Actuarial at the Government Employees Pension Fund of South Africa, gives morning keynote to kick off African Investment and Funds Management Forum at Johannesburg Securities Exchange 23 July 2013
John Oliphant, Head of Investments and Actuarial at the Government Employees Pension Fund of South Africa, gives morning keynote to kick off African Investment and Funds Management Forum at Johannesburg Securities Exchange 23 July 2013


PRIVATE EQUITY AS GROWTH CAPITAL

Private equity is an important asset class in frontier markets with growing economies. There are 2 types of private equity, firstly financial engineering (made famous by the novel based on the Nabisco deal in the 1980s Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco), and secondly growth capital, financing high growth medium-sized companies' expansion. In many frontier and emerging markets PE is more often growth capital than financial engineering because capital is in demand, medium sized companies may be high-growth, and debt markets are no appetite for gearing. So what of PE in Africa, is it helping to grow investment in the continent? Certainly PE in Africa is different in several ways. Firstly, a sizeable chunk of the capital for PE has been supplied by development financing institutions (DFIs), finance arms tied to governments such as Canada, The Netherlands, UK, France or the USA. Secondly, due in large part to the large chunk of assets being supplied by Limited Partners (Investors), at least one-in-two dollars in assets of the fund invested by General Partners (Fund Managers) are filtered for ESG factors. This implies the private equity asset class in Africa is a leading category integrating ESG factors. Thirdly, Africa remains on the margins of the investment universes of many global investors and for the private equity asset class. Africa makes up just 2% of global GDP, 1% of financial markets capitalization, but 13% of population, including a large portion of young citizens. While Africa has gone from being considered a hopeless continent to a hopeful continent, the reality beneath the hype is that most sovereign ratings reflect risk concerns, the absolute size of economies is small, and the available deals are limited. Fourthly, the patchy governance of financial markets in some African countries fail to provide a firm footing for investors worried about the rules of the game, and with doubts about ever seeing their capital again. Finally, the perception arbitrage exists - some benefit from the vacuum of accurate, fresh and plentiful data-points, others are frustrated by it. Today have clean data on companies operating in Africa is the comparative advantage, not even the analysis of it.

Tracking PE demands hard to get data. industry surveys and reports are useful, although LPs and GPs may be exhausted from providing responses! Helping to add some real new data has been the RisCura Bright Africa report. A recent Financial Times feature on PE head at RisCura Fundamentals explained the value of better metrics tracking valuations and deal pricing. A final comment on PE in Africa. My experience suggests that more capital will be flowing, but the timing is unknown. PE fund managers like Carlyle have been putting heaps of CO2 into the atmosphere at 37,000 shopping the Africa story and their new fund. It is a marathon. On the other hand, GEPF has committed $500m to two PE Pan-African funds investing outside South Africa (PAIDF II and PIC pan-Africa ex-South Africa) as John Oliphant explained at this week's Africa Investment Funds and Asset Management Forum 2013 AIFAM2013 at the JSE (see tweets on #AIFAM2013).


GOOD WORK PUTTING SOUTH AFRICA ON THE SUSTAINABILITY ACADEMIC MAP

I was privileged to be invited to join last Friday’s Ph.D research workshop hosted by University of Cape Town Graduate School of Business to learn and share on research in the sustainability theme. The theory of business is examined in multiple ways. Some have been over-research as academics strive to carve out their niche and their legacy. Other areas are under-researched, sometimes because the data does not exist (often the case in developing markets). You are reminded its academic when an early question is: “what is theory”?! Insights from Professor Tima Bansal, Canada Research Chair, Richard Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario, Canada, were compelling, including future research work on time, space and scale and their impacts on business (I was invited but unable to attend the University  of British  Columbia  (UBC)  Faculty  of  Law and  the  Responsible  Investing  Initiative seminar: It’s Time: The Temporal Dimensions of Responsible Investing on 20-21 June 2013). Firstly, Tima's appreciation for Ralph Hamann for his good work in promoting academic work in sustainability. Ralph has helped spur my further thinking on research methods, assumptions and frameworks, been a great supporter for different projects including the Access to Nutrition Index (www.accesstonutrition.org) and spoke at the launch event series for AfricaSIF.org in 2010 VIDEO. He has been responsible for exposing African researchers to leading academics, including Professor Jonathan Doh from the Villanova Graduate School of Business, my MBA thesis advisor and co-author. A good man for sustainability in Africa, Secondly, Tima reflected her ongoing academic work with Andy Hoffman, and their ongoing academic debate on if/how sustainability can only thrive as its own field versus it needs to be an element of the major functional business areas. This debate reflects the similar questions I have been asking, and have revisited in recent conversations with sustainable investment practitioners in London, New York, Boston and Washington DC. 

Thirdly, the critical path for academic careers demands publishing articles in a limited number of journals. It is both a qualifier, and a bottleneck. Any new academic research ideas or approaches must be vetted by “incumbent thinkers”. It does not seem to be a place for innovation. The emphasis is on extending current theory, not for understanding phenomena. But the positive news is how there is now a “thick pipeline” of qualitative research explicitly exploring the environmental implications of business and its operations. Finally, Tima's insights on the leading journal American Management Journal were helpful, especially her promotion of research from frontier markets and developing countries seeking to write academic papers with lessons that are generalizable from, for example, Kenya. Academic contributions to moving forward sustainable investment are critical. I hope the Journal of Sustainable Investment and Finance grows. Just this week I pulled in the new (unpublished) work by Andreas Hoepner et al at University of St Andrews on ESG in China using RepRisk data that won the FFR research award in September 2012. Ahead of the PRI event in October, the role for a PRI Academic Network is being explored by Robert Harding at PRI and Dominique Douf. The objective of the PRIANA is to support the work of the Principles for Responsible Investing Academic Network (PRIAN) by fostering a network of scholars, investors, practitioners, policymakers, regulators and students interested in responsible investment (RI) and environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues in Africa. We need so much new thinking, new systems thinking, and good research. Let’s hope the research pipeline grows, for academics and PE fund investors.


Do good work on sustainable investment that matters.


Graham Sinclair
@esgarchitect
linkedin.com/in/grahamsinclair
Skype: graham_sinclair

SinCo - Sustainable Investment Consulting
SinCo designs ESG architecture for long term sustainable investment that matters. 
www.sincosinco.com
@SinCoESG


Based on my work, experience and interactions, all views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the named individuals, institutions or SinCo, it's clients or services providers. No mention suggests endorsement. This commentary does not constitute investment advise. Issued by SinCo to professional investors and stakeholders for information only and its accuracy/completeness is not guaranteed. All opinions may change without notice and may differ to opinions/recommendations expressed by other business areas of SinCo. SinCo may maintain positions and trade in collective investment instruments referred to. Unless stated otherwise, this is not a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy/sell and any prices/quotations are indicative only. SinCo may provide sustainable investment architecture and other services to, and/or its employees may be directors of, companies referred to. To the extent permitted by law, SinCo does not accept any liability arising from the use of this communication.

© SinCo 2013.  All rights reserved. Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by prominently displaying the following sentence, including the hyperlink to SinCo, at the beginning or end of the report. "ESGextra Weekly Note is republished with permission of SinCo."

Thursday, July 18, 2013

DEFINING SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT

Weekly Viewpoints on Sustainable Investment 

In this week's note a view on defining sustainable investment, sustainability in investment and ESG. 

Language and definitions matter.
PHOTOCREDIT SinCo 2013


DEFINING SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT: WHAT IS ESG?

Definitions for sustainable investment differ. We choose to define the theme of sustainable investment to explain that ESG issues are in every investment decision. But only some investment professionals proactively manage ESG for increased opportunity set and reduced risks exposure. Definitions and the language of sustainable investment have often been a stumbling block to investment practitioners building more formal ESG approaches. Over the years a broad genre of investment practices that integrate the consideration of ESG issues emerged with a perplexing array of names (see how the names have played out in the academic arena in N.S. Eccles; S. Viviers, The Origins and Meanings of Names Describing Investment Practices that Integrate a Consideration of ESG Issues in the Academic LiteratureJournal of Business Ethics. 2011;104(3):389-402). Explaining sustainable investment and the role of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in investment management needs context. Sustainability has its own language. Explaining ESG starts by opening up the conversation. Of SinCo's five recommendations in the seminal report on Sustainable Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (by SinCo + RisCura commissioned by International Finance Corporation funded by the Government of South Africa, published July 2011, see project page LINK), the very first was to articulate ESG in the language of the institutional investor.  


KEY REFERENCE DOCUMENTS

ESG is a useful abbreviation. It is just a simplification, just a tool. The work of developing an ESG philosophy and integrating it into the investment life cycle of a private equity fund or pension fund or listed equity active fund relies as much on the investment philosophy that the investor has of the world (how it see the world as an investor?) as on the definitions of sustainability offered by experts and stakeholders (what material sustainability issues intersect with the stakeholders in the future of the firm?). In framing the best approach to sustainability for a fund, I have used the most recent references (for example the latest IFC sustainability principles launched January 2012 (see also IFC resources for promoting sound environmental, social, governance (ESG) and industry standards) or the Global Reporting Initiative G4 sector guidelines launched in May 2013 or the Kenya Vision 2030 plan in Kenya) in working on design projects for SinCo in private equity in Africa. But we are also mindful of the institutional history through which we have come, for example the 1987 definition of sustainable development by the Brundtland Commission. 
  • "Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" 

But few practitioners are accurate in describing the two riders, namely needs of the poor and technology:
  • "the concept of "needs", in particular the essential needs of the world's poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and 
  • the idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment's ability to meet present and future needs."

The overall investment ecosystem of pension fund trustees, PEOs, advisors, and ratings agencies influence new investment practices. Investors are mostly conservative with a culture of investment-as-usual. Recently, SinCo research in southern Africa (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa) for the IFC and Principal Officers’ Association (POA) indicates that corporate governance, corruption and water scarcity stand out as ESG factors that investors worry may have a significant impact on their funds’ investment performance over the medium term. This research is captured in our forthcoming research paper Defining Momentum:  A Review of the Retirement Fund Investment Value Chain and the Progress of Responsible Investing in Southern Africa (SinCo commissioned by IFC, published July 2013) prepared for the industry-led initiative Sustainable Returns for Pensions and Society Project described in the SinCo portfolio of work LINK.


LINKING HARD LAWS AND SOFT RULES

Sustainable investment has tried hard to find hard ground of definitions, and many have emerged. Considering the carrots and sticks of promoting sustainable investment, definitions are necessary at a very practical level in order to establish the "rules of the game" that allows for policymakers to establish laws and regulations to be administered. The emergence of voluntary investor initiatives has been an important precursor to regulations, and sometimes a practical and pragmatic substitute for laws. These voluntary initiatives are a hybrid between hard rules (direct laws and regulations) and soft rules (moral suasion, stakeholder pressure). So for example, in identifying ESG issues and how they apply to investment, pension fund’s are flagging the realities of how investment happens within a broader investment ecosystem.  A sample of ESG issues include: 
  • Environmental - Environmental Performance, Global Sanctions, Toxic Chemicals. 
  • Social - Child Labor, Consumer Product Safety, Workplace safety, Diversity, Labor Relations. 
  • Governance  - Separation of powers and duties, Publish What You Pay, Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.

The CFA ESG Toolkit launched in June 2008  (PDF) also lists a good range of ESG issues as reference. Voluntary initiatives play an important role in defining some of the issues and differing perspectives to defining sustainability. For example the UN-supported Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) (an investor initiative with UN environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) and the UN Global Compact), the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), Code for Responsible Investment in South Africa (CRISA), the Equator Principles or the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) have played an important role in framing ESG issues. 

From my experience, the ratio of importance of ESG issues, and the exact issues, will vary from region to region, and so will their impact in the investment lifecycle given different asset classes. A positive outcome for institutional investors has been the emergence of investor collaboration. For example, pension funds have used the investor initiatives to increase pipeline of investment opportunities, to increase precision of due diligence, to spread risks in the deal, and co-invest leveraging development financing institutions (DFIs) capital. In shareholder activity the voices of more shareholders and shareholders with greater assets represented helps to generate more influence with companies or policymakers that sustainable investors are trying to influence. For example, this past week has seen the lobbying disclosure resolution filed by the Province of St. Joseph of the Capuchin Order receive 55% shareholder support at Alliant Techsystems (NYSE:ATK), with significant support from collaborating institutional investors


Do good work on sustainable investment that matters.


Graham Sinclair
@esgarchitect
linkedin.com/in/grahamsinclair
Skype: graham_sinclair


SinCo - Sustainable Investment Consulting
SinCo designs ESG architecture for long term sustainable investment that matters. 
www.sincosinco.com
@SinCoESG


Based on my work, experience and interactions, all views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the named individuals, institutions or SinCo, it's clients or services providers. No mention suggests endorsement. This commentary does not constitute investment advise. Issued by SinCo to professional investors and stakeholders for information only and its accuracy/completeness is not guaranteed. All opinions may change without notice and may differ to opinions/recommendations expressed by other business areas of SinCo. SinCo may maintain positions and trade in collective investment instruments referred to. Unless stated otherwise, this is not a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy/sell and any prices/quotations are indicative only. SinCo may provide sustainable investment architecture and other services to, and/or its employees may be directors of, companies referred to. To the extent permitted by law, SinCo does not accept any liability arising from the use of this communication.


© SinCo 2013.  All rights reserved. Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by prominently displaying the following sentence, including the hyperlink to SinCo, at the beginning or end of the report. "ESGextra Weekly Note is republished with permission of SinCo."

Friday, July 12, 2013

ESG INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS IN EMERGING MARKETS, AND OLYMPIC-SIZE CORRUPTION

Weekly Viewpoints on Sustainable Investment 

In this week's note some reflections from a global webinar on emerging markets, looking across to Brazil and ahead to PRI in Person in Cape Town. 



Low altitude sky view of Cape Town harbour and city centre toward Table Mountain, 9 July 2013. 
PHOTOCREDIT: Jean Tresfon, by permission. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jtresfon/


EMERGING RULES OF INVESTMENT     

The rules of investment are different in frontier and emerging markets. Even before the start of the 100th edition of the Tour de France 13 stages ago, I had taken to explaining the gaps between regulations and realities in investment by using the example of cyclist Lance Armstrong (first "I never tested positive" for a decade, then that tear-jerker Oprah Winfrey half-apology apology). Investment, and investment analysis, in frontier and emerging markets happens across borders of regulations, guidelines and laws. The SinCo Investment Philosophy is that there is ESG in every investment decision in the global professional investment management industry, sized at $62 trillion by BCG. Sustainable investment is proactive approach to advanced investment management through integrating ESG factors. It is a broad term, and details matter. None more so than when investing in frontier and emerging markets, the subject of Thursday's global webinar hosted by MSCI ESG "ESG Investment Implications for Emerging Markets". My view remains that "emerging markets" tag is a sweeping simplification, useful in the 1980s when coined by the IFC, redundant in this decade. China has an orbital manned space program, India launched a missile from a submarine platform. Emerging?! We have a competitive economic marketplace in which "[c]hanging trade patterns show, the BRICs and the N11 becoming bigger should make us all wealthier in aggregate...the view of the BRIC countries becoming bigger than the US before 2015, and bigger than the G7 by 2035..." according to Jim O'Neill in his last note "The World Still Needs Better Economic BRICsin April 2013.

My presentation to the global webinar covered two major themes (slidedeck here http://slidesha.re/13DiVpC):


A. Beyond BRICS countries, towards frontier markets and frontiers of ESG:  
  1. Defining your universe of opportunity, and your portfolio entry points. 
  2. Understanding the license to operate of professional investors and their portfolio companies. 
  3. The scope of rules and regulations is smaller than global reputations. 
  4. Relationships are critical in markets with more forms of alternative ownership models and new offerings.
B.  PRI in Person outlook, the enigmatic Africa opportunity
  1. PRIiP2013 has an important footprint effect for PRI, leveraging strategic opportunity in Africa.
  2. Introduces opportunities in fragments, the frustrating search for scale. 
  3. The asset allocation decision and sector exposure may be more important than the geographic universe opportunity in Africa. 
  4. Will the PRI legacy be more than FIFA FWC 2010?
ESG may act as a proxy for advanced due diligence or a marker for absent rules in the marketplace. Food and beverage products with a good reputation are critical to food and beverages companies, as well as their investors, regulators, consumers, and politicians. Food is politics, never more so than when analysis by FAO and OECD predicts that cheap food is history. The Access to Nutrition Index project has illustrated to me that making ESG happen in growth markets will reveal limits to ESG data coverage, national differences in reporting, culture differences, language and jargon barriers, and opportunities to re-interpret ESG concepts. 


PRI ANNUAL EVENT COMES TO AFRICA

Africa introduces opportunities in fragments, and may frustrate businesses and investors seeking for returns to scale, because the continent is so diverse, and so large. For investors seeking exposure to the Africa growth story (not the McKinsey-esque hype, the other story based in reality), I suggest exploring the asset allocation decision and sector exposure. Choosing the right sectors, and which asset classes to invest through may be more important than the geographic universe opportunity to be had in covering Africa. At SinCo we encourage thinking that mirrors the business being done in emerging markets, following anchor industries with multi-stakholder high-impact, high-visibility sustainability profiles, for example, investing in frontier markets in the mining sector faces issues of resource scarcity, above-ground risks, lesser regulated jurisdictions, community pushback, transparency, the "Bumi syndrome" where historical, relational business collides with expectations of corporate governance. So investing in this theme will track a material economic and sustainability trend. The Africa growth story is overplayed. This is demonstrated plainly by the latest UNCTAD report describing intra-Africa trade barriers, often experienced by overland travelers and trucks by hours-long border crossings. 

And so the annual event machine that is the PRI in Person event is cranking up for the conference 1-2 October being hosted in Africa for the first time. Like the FIFA Football World Cup 2010, it will be in Africa's largest economy, South Africa. Africa has been represented in the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) from the start by Africa's largest sovereign wealth pension fund, the US$131 billion AuM Government Employees Pension Fund of South Africa. The PRI South Africa network was one of the first country networks, illustrating the take up by investment managers and services providers, asset owners have been largely absent. John Oliphant, Head: Investments & Actuarial, has lobbied hard to get the annual show onto the continent. I was at a particularly frank meeting of stakeholders in 2010 when investment professional colleagues were left staring at their notepads as questions about making responsible investment happen in Africa were hanging in the air over the boardroom table at GEPF headquarters in Tshwane. 
The PRIiP2013 agenda has taken shape for the 2 days (http://www.unpri.org/events/pri-in-person-cape-town/). I am pleased that private equity is receiving specific attention, albeit outside the formal program on 4 October and have supported the PRI team in London with designing the program, and encouraged the co-work of private equity associations AVCA and SAVCA. PRI is being hosted in a city, within a country and on a continent that has a long history and a demanding current reality. PRIiP2013 delegates do well to scale their rhetoric to the realities. Impact, longevity and equity matter: global asset management is $63 trillion, only $450 billion in emerging markets. Will PRIiP2013 leave a better legacy than FWC2010? FIFA made a tax-free $1 billion in 2010, forced the building of the beautiful white elephant stadium in Greenpoint, Cape Town, and stoked a corruption wave in South Africa that saw a whistleblower assassinated and that is today still playing out with construction companies "facing a firing squad" according to the CEO OF Murray & Roberts (OTCMKTS:MURZY). Corruption is a two-way deal. Sustainable investment aims to come down hard on corruption in business, and most ESG dashboards have pretty sophisticated approaches to filtering governance failures. The details of how the market was manipulated needs to be further understood. Meanwhile construction companies governance scores in South Africa will have tanked. 


CONSTRUCTIONS FIRMS AND WORLD CUPS/OLYMPICS: IT'S COMPLICATED

Based on the largest street protests in a generation in fellow BRICS major Brazil, it looks like the role of construction companies, and their billion dollar contracts, will also play out. I am looking forward to the FIFA FWC2014 in Brazil (especially following THAT 3-0 hammering of Spain last week), and the Rio Olympics 2016. In the withering glare of the business media this week has been billionaire Cesar Mata Pires (Bloomberg: "World Cup Billionaire Stirs Brazil Protests Over Stadiums"). The 90% shareholder of construction firm OAS has benefited hugely from infrastructure projects, and has leveraged financing from Brazil's BNDES development financing bank. OAS has low income housing deals with Brazil's 3 largest pension funds which have an asset base 2x Luxembourg's GDP in 2012. BNDES saw its loans double since 2008 to 156 billion reais last year, twice the total lending of the World Bank. PRI Board member, PREVI, is the largest in Brazil, and is based in Rio de Janeiro. Apparently, a street protester's placard allegedly included "The $ for Education Went to OAS". Ouch! No doubt @BW journalist @BlakeSchmidt is off Mr Pires's scoop shortlist... Bloomberg reports that with the help of subsidized loans from Brazil’s state development bank, closely held OAS SA had revenue of $3.4 billion last year. The OAS head of investor relations Barreto described protesters’ "targeting of OAS is “ignorant” and “simplistic,” and that the company obeys the law...It’s the only existing business model in Brazil." In future posts I will offer some comments on alternative ownership structures and the role of the national governments in frontier markets in financing growth.


MARKETPLACE REPORT ON ESG IN AFRICA INCOMING AUGUST 2013

And finally, a quick update on the marathon project to roll out the AfricaSIF.org 2012 Trends Report (http://www.africasif.org/trends-2012.php). Along with the all-volunteer team of practitioners and graduate students across Africa, I have been working on nailing down the data, analysis and commentary for this first-ever report. The excitement in the report is this new analysis from Africa for Africa and the world. The team is now targeting the IMN Africa Cup of Investment Management 27-29 August for the start of the launch roadshow. This first-ever reporting of professionally managed assets investing in Africa with ESG in some way included in the process. Collaborative project includes GEPF, MSCI, Bloomberg, Investec Asset Management, SinCo, RisCura, Mergence Investment Managers, OMIGSA, and Frost and Sullivan. The survey estimates that the level of sustainable investment in Africa is high with about $233 billion AuM or 63.4% of total AuM of Africa investments is self-reported to be managed according to sustainable investment principles. This implies the African (competitive) market is material for sustainable investment firms, but also pretty scrappy to command market share. Research is costly, especially north of South Africa where reporting is thinner. This helps explain why all major ESG research shops now have decent large firm coverage in South Africa, and why MSCI ESG just hired their first Africa-based analyst starting end August 2013 in Cape Town. Good timing. Chris Froome, current race leader and likely the first Africa-born winner of Le Tour, may be lying on his couch wearing a yellow jersey by the end of July.


Do good work on sustainable investment that matters.

Graham Sinclair
@esgarchitect

Principal
SinCo - Sustainable Investment Consulting
www.sincosinco.com
@SinCoESG

Based on my work, experience and interactions, all views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the named individuals, institutions or SinCo, it's clients or services providers. No mention suggests endorsement. This commentary does not constitute investment advise. Issued by SinCo to professional investors and stakeholders for information only and its accuracy/completeness is not guaranteed. All opinions may change without notice and may differ to opinions/recommendations expressed by other business areas of SinCo. SinCo may maintain positions and trade in collective investment instruments referred to. Unless stated otherwise, this is not a personal recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy/sell and any prices/quotations are indicative only. SinCo may provide sustainable investment architecture and other services to, and/or its employees may be directors of, companies referred to. To the extent permitted by law, SinCo does not accept any liability arising from the use of this communication.


© SinCo 2013.  All rights reserved. Intended for recipient only and not for further distribution without the consent of SinCo. SinCo reserves the right to retain all messages. Messages are protected and accessed only in legally justified cases.


UPDATED 15 July 2013: Text edits, paragraphing, hyperlinks.